According to @AltcoinDaily, this cycle differs because structural drivers now dominate crypto market flows, led by the launch of US spot BTC ETFs in January 2024 that introduced regulated creations and redemptions and new institutional demand, which did not exist in prior cycles, source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approval orders dated Jan 10, 2024. Bitcoin’s April 2024 halving reduced the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC at block 840000, altering miner issuance and potential sell pressure compared with earlier cycles, source: Bitcoin blockchain data via mempool.space block 840000 on Apr 20, 2024. The SEC’s May 23, 2024 approval of 19b-4 filings for spot ETH ETFs opened a new channel for institutional ETH exposure and changed the flow mix this cycle, source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approval orders dated May 23, 2024. For trading, monitoring daily ETF creations and redemptions from issuers to gauge net inflows and outflows, tracking on-chain miner balances after the halving, and following the Federal Reserve’s policy rate path to assess risk appetite can improve positioning versus prior cycles, sources: issuer disclosures from iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, on-chain analytics from Coin Metrics, and Federal Reserve FOMC statements maintaining the target range at 5.25 to 5.50 percent across 2024.

According to @rovercrc, the trading thesis contrasts Bitcoin’s fixed 21,000,000 BTC cap with elastic fiat supply, highlighting a long-term scarcity case for BTC positioning (source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System). Bitcoin’s supply is programmatically capped at 21 million and the block subsidy fell to 3.125 BTC per block after the April 2024 halving, reducing new issuance and net supply growth (source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide). Major fiat currencies such as USD have no predetermined maximum supply; central banks can expand the monetary base via tools like open market operations and quantitative easing during policy easing cycles (source: Federal Reserve Education; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). For traders, the declining BTC issuance relative to expandable fiat supply is frequently cited in institutional allocation frameworks as a scarcity-driven rationale, while acknowledging BTC’s high volatility and macro liquidity sensitivity (source: Fidelity Digital Assets research; Federal Reserve research on liquidity conditions).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, recent market analysis challenges the historical 4-year cycle of Bitcoin (BTC) rallies following Halving events, as outlined in his new book Exponential Gold. Traditionally, Bitcoin has shown significant price increases in the years surrounding Halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, but current observations suggest this pattern may be weakening (source: @Andre_Dragosch, Twitter, June 15, 2025). For traders, this signals the need to reconsider cycle-based trading strategies, as BTC price action may become less predictable and more influenced by external macroeconomic factors. This shift could impact volatility and timing for both short-term and long-term positions, making it crucial for market participants to closely monitor on-chain metrics and global financial developments for effective trade execution.